michael wolf
Generative Adversarial Networks for Financial Trading Strategies Fine-Tuning and Combination
Koshiyama, Adriano, Firoozye, Nick, Treleaven, Philip
Systematic trading strategies are algorithmic procedures that allocate assets aiming to optimize a certain performance criterion. To obtain an edge in a highly competitive environment, the analyst needs to proper fine-tune its strategy, or discover how to combine weak signals in novel alpha creating manners. Both aspects, namely fine-tuning and combination, have been extensively researched using several methods, but emerging techniques such as Generative Adversarial Networks can have an impact into such aspects. Therefore, our work proposes the use of Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs) for trading strategies calibration and aggregation. To this purpose, we provide a full methodology on: (i) the training and selection of a cGAN for time series data; (ii) how each sample is used for strategies calibration; and (iii) how all generated samples can be used for ensemble modelling. To provide evidence that our approach is well grounded, we have designed an experiment with multiple trading strategies, encompassing 579 assets. We compared cGAN with an ensemble scheme and model validation methods, both suited for time series. Our results suggest that cGANs are a suitable alternative for strategies calibration and combination, providing outperformance when the traditional techniques fail to generate any alpha.
Michael Wolf: What's Next for Tech and Media in 2018
Alphabet Inc., Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc. and others are hunting for new areas of growth--often on each other's turf--as they enjoy soaring revenues and stock prices. They are poised to bump into each other across the board, in online sports viewing, movies, news and even podcasting. Up for grabs is an extra $300 billion a year in revenues that Activate projects will flow into the $1.7 trillion global consumer media and internet market by 2021, through growing internet-access fees, ads and paid content. Activate estimates the market will grow 4.1% a year. Consumers' time, though, is already stretched, with young people in particular tethered to devices much of the day.